With thanks to Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney
Published on January 10, 2010 By Bunnahabhain In The Environment

Well, well, well. One of my favourite columnists, Lawrence Solomon wrote a very interesting column yesterday. This is sure to turn a few heads. The gist of the article is that man-made global warming was occurring due to the hole in the ozone layer. When the key industrial nations of the world banned CFCs, the layer repaired itself, and global warming stopped.

From the linked article:

 

"Climate change is real and man-made, explains University of Waterloo professor Qin-Bin Lu, author of a new study published this week in the peer-reviewed journal,Physics Reports."

 

The biggest problem that I've always had with the global warming hypothesis was that it was too simple an explanation. The earth's climate is a very complex system, and while CO2 admittedly plays a role, it is such a minor component that you can't explain the effect on the entire system by adjusting it up and down.

It's kind of like trying to determine how the economy is going to perform solely by looking at "supply and demand".

This will surely fry the AGW crowd's bacon, if it turns out to be correct explanation. Thank you Qing-Bin Lu!

 


Comments (Page 1)
on Jan 10, 2010

Qin-Bin Lu
Actually it's Qing-Bin Lu. The article you quoted didn't even get his name right, follow your link to the abstract if you don't believe me. Regardless of his name, he's been on this tack since at least 2001 and has been debunked at every turn.

See http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2009/11/plot-thickens-ozone-does-not.html.

And http://prl.aps.org/pdf/PRL/v103/i22/e228501.

The gist of the article is that man-made global warming was occurring due to the hole in the ozone layer.
If anything the fact that the ozone hole is repairing itself due to our substantially decreased use of CFC's causes an *increase* in global warming and rising sea levels. Apparently the ozone hole over the Antarctic has allowed radiational cooling of the eastern, more densely ice-covered, section of the continent which has partially protected it from the effects of global warming and so as the ozone hole repairs itself this protection diminishes.

See http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2009-12/study-finds-ozone-hole-repair-contributes-global-warming-sea-level-rise.

And http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/01/ozone-antarctica

on Jan 10, 2010

Actually it's Qing-Bin Lu.

As if a typo on a foreign name somehow discredits the author. I had followed the link before I created the post, and didn't notice it myself. Either way, my attribution has been corrected.

Regardless of his name, he's been on this tack since at least 2001 and has been debunked at every turn.

Where do you get "debunked at every turn" from? I took a look at all of the links that you provided, and the are all basically referring to the same paper.

I have no problem with Lu being challenged, and I'm sure that he expects it too. From your first link, "Müller proceeds to go through Lu's research with a fine-toothed comb; sure enough, it hitches on subtle snarls in argument and approach". Hardly a debunking.

If anything the fact that the ozone hole is repairing itself due to our substantially decreased use of CFC's causes an *increase* in global warming and rising sea levels.

That's what your links imply, but where's this "*increase* in global warming and rising sea levels" that you mentioned. Didn't anyone tell you that temperatures have been going down since 1998 or so?

on Jan 10, 2010

Didn't anyone tell you that temperatures have been going down since 1998 or so?
Sure. Every denier on the planet says that. But they are either outright lying or they simply wish to be deluded because it suits their ideology.

 

Also it's not "or so". It's precisely 1998 that must be cherry picked as the starting date of the comparison otherwise the comparison is easily seen as the total bullshit that it is.

Plus the effects of a repairing antarctic ozone hole are not expected to kick in for another decade or so.

on Jan 10, 2010

Where do you get "debunked at every turn" from? I

The warming zealots have to claim that.  You see in their religion, there can be no debate (the debate is over).  In science, as all rational sane people know, the debate is never over until something becomes a FACT, which AGW is not.  It is a mystlical belief perpetuated by the almighty dollar and small minded religious zealots.

Every denier on the planet says that. But they are either outright lying or they simply wish to be deluded because it suits their ideology.

No. It is all in the numbers and the manipulation of them. You see the Religious zealots dont want you to talk about manipulation since they are guilty of it (eliminating the MWP and LIA along with most of the Russian reporting stations to name a few).  So they doctor the data for the history and then start their proof from an arbitraty point.  Now when the skeptics (note not deniers - the true deniers are the religious zealots who are denying science) do the same, but instead start the trend at 1998, the trend is a slight decline.

Now, contrary to the religious zealots, there is no "debunking this".  As it is just a fact, not a doctored number.  However statisticians have said there is insufficient data points to provide any statistical sampling, and hence it is just numbers plotted on a graph, and not a statistical trend.  Which most skeptics do readily acknowledge, but the religious zealots then lie and say it has been "debunked".

So what we now have is an alternate theory, not debunked (but debated as it should be) and of course the religious zealots worried that perhaps their religion is about to be proven irrelevant, trying to burn the heretics at the stake.

Did you see how fast Mr. Know it all came out and lied about the study?  Using a typo to try to add some legitimacy to his creed?  That is how the religious zealots work,  Torquemada would be proud.

on Jan 10, 2010

Sure. Every denier on the planet says that. But they are either outright lying or they simply wish to be deluded because it suits their ideology.

Hmm. It seems to me that you're the one with the ideology here. While I'm not convinced that global warming is man-made, I am convincible. Name calling and attempts at impugning a man's reputation won't fly with me though.

If you think that the video that you embedded is the kind of information that might persuade me, then you're woefully mistaken. Reasonable people can look at the same information and walk away with different conclusions.

on Jan 10, 2010

The warming zealots have to claim that.

Well he certainly offered no response to it. And other than embedding a rather condescending video and matching verbiage, he added nothing of value to the conversation.

So what we now have is an alternate theory, not debunked (but debated as it should be) and of course the religious zealots worried that perhaps their religion is about to be proven irrelevant, trying to burn the heretics at the stake.

My take exactly.

That is how the religious zealots work,

Yes, it's felt like a religious war for some time now, with a lack of reasoning and a desire to smack the opponent over the head until they finally "get it".

Torquemada would be proud.

Ouch!  

on Jan 10, 2010

I still find it funny that there are still people who believe the Global Warming™ myth. 

 

on Jan 10, 2010

I still find it funny that there are still people who believe the Global Warming™ myth.
As I find deniers quite funny.

Perhaps another 5 or 10 years will be enough that even you will have to admit that you were wrong. However when you can deny 30 years of warming it's difficult to believe that another 5 or 10 will make any difference to you.

Of course there are still people that believe that smoking isn't bad for you either. It shouldn't be suprising that many of the same organizations that deny global warming were heavily involved with denying that smoking was harmful.

 

on Jan 10, 2010

It shouldn't be suprising that many of the same organizations that deny global warming were heavily involved with denying that smoking was harmful.

It should not be surprising that the AGW religious cant debate the issue on merit, and must then try to impugn the other side by association.  WOuld it surprise Mr. Know it all, that MOST of the groups supporting AGW as a fact also supported Segregation/Racism?  Indeed!  But do you see that played out in the debate?  No, because it is a non-sequitur.  Just as the crap about some (hardly many, but then that is another tactic - use nebulous terms and insinuate a greater weight than actually exists) having supported smoking as well.  And the point is?  Nothing, but they think it is significant, so play it constantly.

ANd of course, like any religion, they have an answer for anything.  Just a short while ago, they maintained there was NO debate.  Then when the scientists got together and said "Wait, we are scientists, and there is debate", they had to impugn them!  By of course calling into question their connections and qualifications.  And this SInclair - a known supporter of eco terrorists.  And we are supposed to believe some clown that agrees with blowing up people to save snails?

That is AGW for you,  All religion and no facts.  The facts are that there is an hypothesis on the issue, but it will never go anywhere now that the religious have taken it over.

NOw mr. Know it all, before embedding another terrorist blog, please prove to us why we should believe racists?

on Jan 10, 2010

Dr Guy
All religion and no facts.
This from the king of no facts.

because it is a non-sequitur.
It is not a non sequitur because the fact that the same groups and even the same people that denied smoking was bad are in fact using the same techniques in their fight against AGW. They have no need to prove anything, all they have to do is to put forth any contradictory information regardless of it's credibility and thereby claim that there is some sort of debate.

There is no debate among credible and credentialed scientists in the field. All of this is just smoke and mirrors from the right.

Here's just a very few examples of orgainzations that have been prominent in both the pro-tobacco and anti-AGW movement.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Cato_Institute

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Competitive_Enterprise_Institute

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=The_Advancement_of_Sound_Science_Coalition

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Citizens_for_a_Sound_Economy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heartland_Institute

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_C._Marshall_Institute

You might also take a look at http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/exxon_report.pdf which is a report authored by the Union of Concerned Scientists about "How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco’s Tactics to Manufacture Uncertainty on Climate Science."

So no, relating climate change denial and big tobacco is *not* a non sequitur.

And if there are really those that truly "can be convinced" then they should also check out http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/19/ethicalliving.g2 from which the following was excerpt.

"For years, a network of fake citizens' groups and bogus scientific bodies has been claiming that science of global warming is inconclusive. They set back action on climate change by a decade. But who funded them? Exxon's involvement is well known, but not the strange role of Big Tobacco. In the first of three extracts from his new book, George Monbiot tells a bizarre and shocking new story."

on Jan 10, 2010

Name calling and attempts at impugning a man's reputation won't fly with me though.
It's the ozone layer, stupid!
I don't suppose you notice the irony between these two comments.

 

on Jan 11, 2010

It is not a non sequitur

You should have stopped there.  The rest just shows that you dont understand what a non sequitur is.  And apaprently dont care.  But then having declared yourself an avowed racist, I dont expect you to worry about being associated with them and their attempts to control the debate on climate as well.

Well, Mr, Know it all, let me clue you in.  Whether it is 5 groups, 10 groups or 100 groups, it does not matter if they support tobacco or not, now does it?  Unless you are running a popularity contest.  Are you?  Apparently, because you dont even understand or are well versed in the debate.  instead you link (and probably slavishly follow) a nice PR site (no science, just PR), and the rest of the debate goes over your head.  You dont have to have facts to be a religious zealot, just the bible of AGW.  You have that, and nothing else.

But for your education, let me give you one little definition.  Try to learn the difference between descriptions and name calling.  If you dont want to be described by your drivel, dont live up to it.

stu⋅pid

[stoo-pid, styoo‑] Show IPA adjective, -er, -est, noun

–adjective

1. lacking ordinary quickness and keenness of mind; dull.
2. characterized by or proceeding from mental dullness; foolish; senseless: a stupid question.
3.

tediously dull, esp. due to lack of meaning or sense; inane; pointless: a stupid party.

on Jan 11, 2010

You are a liar.

I said my parents were racist. That does not make me a racist.

No, you are.  You stated you would never vote for anyone with an R next to their name.  Men like Abraham Lincoln and the republican Congressmen of the 60s that dragged this nation out of segregation.  You would not vote for them because in your words "I have never seen anything they stand for worth voting for".  So you are against emancipation, and civil rights.  That makes you a racists (in all but Al Sharpton's book since you are a D, not an R).

So you are the liar.  And clearly I struck paydirt with your vitriolic response to me.  The truth hurts.  Lies do not.  next time you are going to do a knee jerk, think (if that is possible) before you write.

And quit blaming your parents.  At least (if what you say is true since now everything you say is called into question) they were honest.  Not liars.

on Jan 11, 2010

You stated you would never vote for anyone with an R next to their name.
That does not make me a racist.

And yes, you are the liar. 

on Jan 11, 2010

That does not make me a racist.

And yes, you are the liar.

You quack like a racist, swim like a racist, and fly like a racist.  you are a racist.  You hate evereything the republicans have done, and that was one of the prominent ones mentioned.  You can call yourself a "person of a different color" or whatever other euphamism is in vogue on the D side (check with Harry and Bobby for the latest).  But your words say otherwise.

And if I am a liar, you should be able to post my lies.  So far, you have not posted anything but your own.  And while I am aware that the D is never responsible for anything (someone else made them do it, or it is someone else's fault), I did not make you.  Your parents did.  So do not attribute your lies to me.  They only serve to remind everyone what you said, and the lies you told.

Check your PC at the door.  You are not high enough up in the D party to get a pass on JU (if anywhere).